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本板討論主題為國內外政治經濟、疫情、國際關係等各類公共議題。
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無名
2025/07/09(三) 14:21:57.695 ID:3nONhJMI
No.18797498
del
History's Warning to President Trump: Appease the Authoritarian Today, Pay in Blood Tomorrow : China
With great respect to President Trump, whose relentless focus on national sovereignty and America First economic, trade, and foreign policy is vital, we must say plainly: the argument to separate economic engagement from authoritarian aggression is both historically reckless and strategically naïve.
The world has seen this movie before, multiple times, and it does not end well.
In the 1930s, well-meaning diplomats insisted that economic cooperation with Nazi Germany would temper its militarism. Chamberlain waved his worthless paper after meeting Hitler in Munich and proclaimed “peace for our time.” Meanwhile, Hitler was absorbing Austria, carving up Czechoslovakia, aggressively building his war machine, and laying plans for a continental bloodbath. Appeasement didn’t prevent war, it emboldened it.
So too did détente with Stalin buy little more than time for the Soviet Union to consolidate its satellite empire. And how many American administrations believed they could tether China to the rules-based international order by “engagement,” “constructive dialogue,” or WTO accession”? The fruits of that fantasy are clear: genocide in Xinjiang, techno-authoritarianism exported globally, and a PLA arming itself for war in the Taiwan Strait.
Xi Jinping is not a misunderstood statesman seeking coexistence. He is a Leninist autocrat methodically executing a plan to displace American leadership and impose Chinese primacy—politically, economically, militarily, and technologically.
To suggest that we can “agree to disagree” on Taiwan while making trade deals with the same regime that runs 2.4 million daily cyberattacks on Taipei, surrounds the island with mock blockades, and issues war threats as casually as press releases—is a grave misreading of the stakes. The U.S. itself endures ongoing, large-scale Chinese intrusions into our telecom networks, power grids, and critical infrastructure—salted deep into our system by state-backed actors like Volt Typhoon. We tried separating business from ideology with the CCP for 40 years. They didn’t separate anything. They used the cash, tech, and IP to build the very arsenal now aimed at our allies and interests.
When you do business with the devil, don’t be surprised when he uses the profits to buy a bigger pitchfork...and then turns it on you.
Cyberwarfare, the South China Sea, and Taiwan are not side-issues—they are centerpieces of China’s global strategy. By treating them as mere “disputes to be managed,” we risk repeating the catastrophic error of those who thought the Japanese oil embargo of 1941 was the spark—not the inevitable result of decades of imperial aggression.
(1/2)
無名
2025/07/09(三) 14:27:00.803 ID:NJ497oEM
No.18797501
del
>>18797498
A better analogy than 1941 is perhaps 1939: authoritarian regimes will push until they are resisted. The sooner that resistance is real, the smaller the war. The longer we pretend the danger can be finessed away through diplomacy and decoupled trade lanes, the bigger the cost in the end...in economics, liberty, and lives.
Appeasement doesn’t avoid war. It just delays it—until the price is far higher.
History is screaming at us. Let’s not pretend we can’t hear it.
J. Kyle Bass
https://x.com/Jkylebass/status/1942817699177930986?t=0dHFdVecLbcP6ECxWt0PAg&s=19
無名
2025/07/09(三) 15:09:46.058 ID:NJ497oEM
No.18797525
del
翻譯
凱爾巴斯:
「40年來,我們一直試圖與中共將商業與意識形態分開。但他們什麼也沒分開。他們利用金錢、技術和智慧財產權,打造瞭如今瞄準我們盟友和利益的武器庫。
當你與魔鬼做生意時,當他用利潤購買更大的武器,然後把武器對準你的時候不要感到驚訝。…
比1941年更貼切的比喻或許是1939年:獨裁政權會不斷推進,直到遭到抵抗。抵抗越早真正出現,戰爭規模就越小。我們越是假裝可以透過外交手段和貿易路線脫鉤來化解危險,最終的代價就越大……包括經濟、自由和生命。
綏靖政策並不能避免戰爭,它只是拖延戰爭──直到戰爭的代價更高。
歷史正在向我們吶喊。我們不能假裝聽不見。」
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